Enter the load counts from the Monday-night Valley confirmations (Rio Grande Farms + Valley Fresh email you their truck counts the day before Tuesday delivery). This tool predicts whether customer orders are about to be shorted — and what to do about it — before the miss happens.
Rule of thumb from H1 data: any Valley truck under ~85% of ordered cases has historically led to shorted customers within 1–3 days. 1 potato case ≈ 50 lb; the tool converts automatically.
| Supplier | Region / Day | Grade |
Fill rate | Short days |
Consistency | Worst day | Lbs short |
Grade blends fill rate, share of short delivery days, and week-to-week consistency (volatility). Fill rate = potatoes actually received vs ordered, same-day (JIT = no buffer to wait for a backorder).
When a Rio Grande Valley supplier falls short, orders get missed
Each bar = a week. Orange line = customer order misses that week. Misses spike exactly when the Rio Grande Valley suppliers (Rio Grande Farms + Valley Fresh, both Tuesday) drop together.
Miss rate by supply condition
The founder's hunch was "one weak supplier." The data says it's a correlated regional shortfall: both Valley suppliers share the same growing region and the same delivery day, so they fail together — with zero buffer to absorb it.